Saints and Colts Stay Unbeaten...But It Won't Last

While the New England Patriots have lost two straight games for the first time in years and the Minnesota Vikings suffered their second loss of the season to Arizona, things are still looking peachy for Indy and New Orleans. Both are sitting on 12-0 records, both have MVP-caliber quarterbacks in Peyton Manning (who has already won 3) and Drew Brees (who was only a couple of completions shy of Dan Marino's passing yardage record last year) respectively, and both have defenses that come up big when it counts despite giving up pretty large chunks of points (the Saints are ranked 16th in points allowed this season, and while the Colts come in at 2nd in that category they have a tendency to fall behind early despite having the league's 4th ranked offensive attack).

The defenses aren't the only ones that are at their best in the clutch. Manning and the Colts have made fourth-quarter comebacks look easy this season (before last week's contest against the upstart Tennessee Titans they had had five straight come-from-behind victories). Not wanting to be left out, the Saints defeated Washington last week in a wild 33-30 overtime win. I was gunning for the 'Skins to win that game, but as luck would have it their tragic comedy of errors continued against the one team I hoped they would not make a mistake against (I could barely resist throwing something at my television when I saw Kareem Moore fumble the football after intercepting a pass and allow Saints receiver Robert Meachem, who was also the player who stripped Moore in the first place, to carry it 42 yards for a score).

These two teams have proved me wrong so far, but I said it weeks ago and I'll say it again: The Colts and Saints will NOT go undefeated. Sure, the Saints schedule is looking easier and easier from here on out, with the Cowboys as their only credible opponent remaining (I refuse to include the Atlanta Falcons while Matt Ryan is injured). Even so going undefeated is the most difficult to do in the NFL because the quest to perfection paints a large bullseye on the backs on those teams. The toughest part of the season for an undefeated team is at the end, when the talk of being perfect is at full volume. If you'll remember, the undefeated 2007 Patriots had some of their closest games in the final half of the season, against teams that they were expected to crush (including a Ravens group that went 5-11 that year). After pulling out wins against Baltimore and another nailbiter against Philly, the Pats closed out the regular season with a 38-35 victory against the New York Giants. While it cemented their perfect regular season, it was also a sign of things to come, and the once-dominant playoff Patriots were sunk 17-14 by those same Giants in the biggest game of the year. The one loss on their 18-1 mark that year came in the only game that really mattered: the Super Bowl.

While the Pats may have gone undefeated, I am still convinced that this year's contenders won't be so lucky. While the Saints may have avoided a loss by the skin of their teeth last week, the fact remains that the 'Skins have played some terrible football this season (their 3-9 record is evidence enough of that), and to put up such an inspired performance without their best player (Clinton Portis) is an omen of what awaits New Orleans down the stretch. Look for whoever beats them to not have many wins.

As for Indy, they have enough problems as it is without the talk of being perfect. They are dead last in the league in rushing with a dismal 87.7 yards per game, and without the arm of Peyton Manning this team could easily have a .500 record right now. With Bob Sanders sidelined for the season, the defense is far from impenetrable. It just helps when none of the teams in their division have a competent attack across the board. They host Denver next week, so look for the Broncos and their revitalized offense to give the Colts some trouble. After that, they have to go away to Jacksonville (who will more than likely solely be playing the role of spoilers) and then come back to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the Jets on Thursday Night Football. But the place (not necessarily the team) that I think may give the Colts the most problems is Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo, where temperatures are absolutely frigid in January.

The last thing we need is another team going undefeated, let alone two. As much as I love Peyton Manning, I will be praying that he plays great but the Colts lose, and then I'll just have to root for whoever plays the Saints.

Who's Hot & Who's Not

Many teams in the NFL could be presently labeled as "on fire", but there are two kinds of fire: there's the kind when your team appears to be the unstoppable force on their way to a title, and then there's the kind when your team is so bad you just wish the flames would swallow them up completely. Here's the lowdown on the 5 best and 5 worst teams in pro football (and their records through five weeks of play).

Runnin' Hot (ranked worst to best)

These teams are contenders. They have basically erased all doubts and firmly ensconced themselves amongst the NFL elite (at least for thi season). There are no also-rans here. They are the real deal, so it should come as little surprise that they are all undefeated.

5. Denver Broncos (5-0): Most probably had the Broncos written off before the season started (I know I did) due to the turbulent off-season they had. But the wind seems to have died in Denver, as rookie head coach Josh McDaniels has a firmer hold on the team than ever. They just upset McDaniels' former team and mentor in the Patriots and Bill Belichick, proving that they are not pretenders anymore. The Broncos are playing great defense in a 3-4 system despite not really having a dominant nose tackle, so credit goes to McDaniels and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan for assembling that team (particularly a defensive backfield that features Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins). In addition, Kyle Orton seems to have adopted the mantra of the Oakland Raiders ("Just win, baby" and not "Cheating is encouraged") and is now 18-2 at home in his career. His greatest asset is that he doesn't make mistakes, and his succinct management of the Denver offense seems very reminiscent of Brady and the Patriots during their Super Bowl victories in the last decade.

4. Minnesota Vikings (5-0): The Vikings can do most of the things that a Super Bowl caliber team can do. They can run the ball, stop the run and get after the quarterback. Their mammoth defensive line (featuring defensive tackles Pat and Kevin Williams) is playing stout defense as the two tackles are playing as stellar as ever, and former Pro Bowler Jared Allen is returning to the form that made him such a high-end signing when he came over from Kansas City. In addition to sporting arguably the best running back in football in Adrian Peterson, Minnesota finally have a quarterback who is used to high-pressure games. It seems to have rubbed off on the team, who played great in the heavily dramaticized Monday night game against the Packers.

3. Indianapolis Colts (5-0): The Colts may deserve a higher spot on this list (only the return of their key defensive starters will tell us that), but the fact is they live and die on the arm of Peyton Manning. As he rolled to his fifth straight 300-yard game (completing 36 of 44 passes for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Titans), Manning proved that he is probably playing the best ball of his career and, in terms of importance to his team, already has my non-existent vote for MVP. The Colts might be even better now, as safety Bob Sanders and linebacker Gary Brackett practiced this week. The return of those two to the defense should make Indy even more formidable.

2. New Orleans Saints (4-0): The Saints must have most fantasy owners swooning by now. Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense have become the offensive juggernaut everyone thought they could be, and have shown in past weeks that they don't rely too heavily on their quarterback (putting them ahead of Peyton Manning and the Colts) as Mike Bell and others have ran them to victories. But the most important thing for the Saints is that the defense is finally doing their part instead of being a detriment to the team. New defensive coordinator Greg Williams and safety Darren Sharper (who already has five interceptions through four games) seem to have made the difference, and the Saints finally look they may be able to get over the playoff hump.

1. New York Giants (5-0): It's hard to argue with this pick. The G-Men are still playing fantastic football despite injuries to key players such as new acquisitions Chris Canty and Michael Boley. They have the deepest defensive line in all of football (sorry, Vikings) and a solid offense led by QB Eli Manning, who demonstrated his ability to play through the pain as he battled a heel injury. His performance is even more impressive given the young age of the receivers on the Giants roster, which include two rookies in Ramses Barden and first-round pick Hakeem Nicks (both of whom look set to replace Plaxico Burress in years to come).

I would love to see Super Bowl XXIV be a Manning Bowl; I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Crashed & Burning (ranked best to worst)

These teams are, in a word, bad. Just as the five best teams are all unbeaten, most (but not all) of the worst teams are winless. Here's the kicker: the Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams are not on this list (they probably deserve to be, but they're old news).

5. Tennessee Titans (0-5): The Titans had the best record in the league last year at 13-3 before losing to the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional playoff, so their fall from grace was both swift and unexpected. Their only significant loss was defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (who signed with the Redskins, who will be featured here as well), but their defense is a shadow of its former self. Admittedly, they're beaten up (Pro Bowler Cortland Finnegan missed another game as he sat out against the Colts), but their running game is not enough to get it done and needs some help from an anemic pass attack. Even so, QB Kerry Collins doesn't seem in danger of losing his job, which seems to point the finger at what has historically been the problem for Tennessee (the wide receivers).

4. Kansas City Chiefs (0-5): Unlike the rest of the teams that follow later in this list, I think I can see a glimmer of hope for the Chiefs. Yeah, sure, they're 0-5. But the nucleus of young talent necessary to build a good team is there. Personally, I don't think it was worth signing Matt Cassel to a $60 million contract this soon (it's too easy to look good in the Patriots offense), but he has showed flashes of the ability to be a franchise quarterback. The Chiefs also have a talented young defense that performed admirably against Dallas in spite of their stagnant offense, particularly their talent-laden defensive line that features 3 of their last 5 first round picks in Glenn Dorsey, Tamba Hali and Tyson Jackson. In short, it's not too late to give up on KC. They're a rebuilding team and they know it, which is more than can be said for the other teams on this list. Even so, with a running game that looks pitiful when Larry Johnson runs the ball, it will be rough going for the Chiefs to get their first win. Or perhaps not; Kansas City plays reeling Washington next week and, in a suprise upset, I pick the Chiefs to get their first win as long as they play with the effort and intensity that they showed against the Cowboys.

3. Washington Redskins (2-3): I smell something burning in D.C. I think it's Jim Zorn's seat as head coach. Record-wise, Washington is the best team on this list at 2-3, but they are still woeful both on and off the field. A loss to previously winless Carolina could probably spell doom for Zorn, but the real shocker was the loss to the Detroit Lions. How could you, Washington? You snapped Detroit's losing streak that was going on two years! Now you've given them hope, and you've given yourself the title of "The Team that Lost It" (at least as far as I'm concerned). Seriously, though, the one who has lost it is Redskins owner Daniel Snyder. How could anyone expect to win with a hastily assembled collection of veteran free agents from different backgrounds and different systems? All those free agent deals are basically the anchor weighing the 'Skins down, and now that they need draft picks to pick up some young guys, they don't have any. Mike Shanahan's shadow may be looming large over Washington, but so long as Snyder keeps running the draft for his team I don't see them getting better anytime soon.

2. Cleveland Browns (1-4): Oh, how the Browns try and try, but the fact remains that it's hard to turn around a perennial loser. Despite squeaking past the Buffalo Bills in what could be the lowest-scoring game of the season (the score at the final whistle was 6-3), the Browns remain in a state of disarray. They just traded their best offensive weapon (wideout Braylon Edwards) to the New York Jets for a 3rd-round pick, 5th-round pick and two special teamers, while their other #1 receiver (Donte Stallworth) is suspended without pay and serving house arrest for DUI manslaughter. "Man-Genius" hardly seems an appropriate moniker for head coach Eric Mangini (personally I think "Man-Jackass" might be more fitting), who has effectively alienated the team with his totalitarian regime, which included charging a player over $1700 for a $3 water bottle that was mistakenly not paid for. Worse yet, he is hardly a change from previous Browns coach Romeo Crennel (another former Patriots assistant for whom I had much more respect). At least Crennel was close with his players.

1. Oakland Raiders (1-4): How the hell did the Raiders beat Kansas City? The team that I saw get drubbed 44-7 by the New York Giants couldn't possibly have won a game. But it's true; the Raiders are 1-4 and, in my opinion (and I'm sure I'm not alone on this) the worst team in the league. You know a team is bad when their owner announces a fire sale of all but their top talent. Confused? That's basically what Al Davis has done. Reports say he has been making calls around the league offering to trade almost all but the Raiders' top young players. There are few ways to interpret this except as a sign that Oakland has given up on the season. The sad part is there isn't much talent to shop for in Oakland. Aside from rookie wide reciever Darrius Heyward-Bey (it's too early to let the hammer fall on him just yet) and running back Darren McFadden, the word is out on the Raiders. Jamarcus Russell looks bad, and by "bad" I mean awful. He doesn't seem to have much of a work ethic; he's consistently overweight and his footwork sucks, leading to missed throws and the lowest completion percentage of any quarterback in the NFL (and also the nickname "Off-the-Marcus", provided by ESPN writer Jason Whitlock). Basically, the Raiders have done too little, too late. While they are shopping their players for picks, they can reminisce about how they gave their first-round selection in 2011 for Patriots defensive lineman Richard Seymour, who probably won't want to return to the dismal Raiders after the one year on his contract expires. Oops.

Carolina and Tampa Bay narrowly avoided making this list. The Panthers beat the 'Skins yesterday so I felt their exclusion was warranted (although Jake Delhomme's ludicrous $42.5 million contract extension was most certainly not), while the Bucs are basically in the same boat as Kansas City and this blog only has room for one rebuilding franchise.

Draft Recap Part 3

12. Denver Broncos – Knowshon Moreno – RB – Georgia: The inauspicious title of my Most Puzzling Pick Award, Denver defied the predictions of most draft analysts when they chose the Georgia back at #12. That is not to say that Moreno is a bad player; on the contrary, he may be the best overall running back in the draft with his quickness, lateral agility, good hands, and youth. My concern is that he is not the best for Denver, who suffered on defense last year with a dismal ranking of 29th in the NFL. The fact that this is a recurring theme (the Broncos have finished 15th on defense in 2005, 14th in 2006, and 19th in 2007, usually due to a porous front seven) makes it even more disappointing that they did not more aggressively pursue a difference maker on the defensive line. I would have loved to see this team move up to #8 to get B.J. Raji, as Jacksonville was attempting to trade down at the time. It doesn’t seem inconceivable that Josh McDaniels could have traded this pick and a second-rounder to move up to the eighth spot, and given the Broncos woeful defensive line Raji would have been a big help. With that possibility come and gone, it seems to me that McDaniels was instead trying to alleviate the loss of Jay Cutler with another stud player in the backfield. If Moreno turns out like Clinton Portis, that’s great, but I must say I was not particularly impressed with this selection, which appears to be make as the result of a mistake and not as the result of a ‘best-player-available’ strategy.

13.Washington Redskins – Brian Orakpo – DE/LB – Texas: It doesn’t seem often that a player has one specific team that they want to play for and that one team ends up picking them, but that seems to be case here. Brian Orakpo was jubilant upon being selected by the ‘Skins, and I’ll bet that Washington was eager to get him. A highly athletic and versatile talent, Orakpo will probably play a hybrid of linebacker and defensive end for the Redskins. The stars seem to have aligned for the former Longhorn and his new team, whom Orakpo stated after his selection was “the team I want.” This is a good fit for Washington given the status of aging pass rushers Andre Carter and Jason Taylor, but they should be wary of Orakpo’s status as a ‘workout warrior’ and hope he does not end up like Vernon Gholston, picked sixth by the Jets last year.

14. New Orleans Saints – Malcolm Jenkins – CB – Ohio State: While they lured safety Darren Sharper from Minnesota, the release of Mike McKenzie left the Saints secondary vulnerable at the cornerback position. Malcolm Jenkins is one of the best cover corners in this draft, and he possesses that rare ability that NFL teams covet in corners: the willingness to tackle. Having played safety as well as corner at (the) Ohio State University, Jenkins is an able tackler who can deliver the hit and give an instant boost to the Saints defense.

15. Houston Texans – Brian Cushing – LB – USC: Houston are building a case for one of the most talented defensive units in the league with the success of Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Omobi Okoye, and Brian Cushing could be another component in what I see as a future perennial playoff defense. Cushing is an extremely capable linebacker who might not have the most upside of the three USC linebackers, but during his college tenure he showed pass rushing ability and excellent coverage skills, which the Texans could definitely use. So who does he replace? Ryans? Definitely not. Marlon Greenwood, Xavier Adibi, or Zack Diles? Probably.

16. San Diego Chargers – Larry English – DE/LB – Northern Illinois: Larry English adds another talent to an already star-studded Chargers team. While San Diego’s squad has some of the best depth in the league, the loss of Shaun Merriman exposed some glaring weaknesses in the Chargers pass rush. English is a quick and powerful pass rusher who will complement Merriman well, giving the San Diego defense more ability to create chaos in the opponent’s backfield.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Cleveland, from NY Jets) – Josh Freeman – QB – Kansas State: This pick wasn’t much of a surprise; Tampa needed a quarterback coming into this draft (even with the remnants of Jon Gruden’s QB carousel still in-house) since Jeff Garcia departed for the Oakland Raiders. Josh Freeman can be for Tampa this year what Joe Flacco was for the Baltimore Ravens last year: a tall, strong-armed pocket passer who can give an ailing pass attack a shot in the arm. With recent star Antonio Bryant back in the receiving corps, Tampa will look to form a potent combination between him and Freeman.

18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago) – Robert Ayers – DE/LB – Tennessee: Let’s just say I was significantly more pleased with this pick than I was with #12. Who better to help fix the Broncos defense than a standout from a school known for producing stout defensive players (Albert Haynesworth, Jerod Mayo, and former Bronco Al Wilson for starters)? His lack of production at Tennessee (3 sacks in his senior year is poor, even on a struggling team), but Ayers has shown that he is a superb talent and potentially well-valued at 18th overall, able to bring an explosive presence to Denver’s new 3-4 defensive scheme.

Stay tuned for picks #19-25 on the next edition of our NFL Draft Recap.